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Crypto Rollercoaster: Explaining the Recent Market Performance
https://www.ccn.com/crypto-rollercoaster-explaining-the-recent-market-performance/ Just when it appeared that the cryptocurrency market was about to bottom out just a fortnight ago (with Bitcoin reaching a reported 14-month volatility low), the market subsequently started displaying indicators of a directional shift. Last week however, we saw a short-term appreciation in value. In typical crypto fashion it was just as rapid if not more so than the recent decline and Bitcoin, in particular, was observed to have exceeded “a key resistance level at $7,000 after breaking out of the $6,800 mark… crucial for the short-term recovery of Bitcoin.”. Right now however, we are looking at what some mainstream media organisations have described as an ominous price-crash: if not full-blown ‘meltdown’.
Causation Between News and Value?
The reasons for the crash – like many before – are likely plenty, such as the theory of market manipulation by wealthy crypto-barons, amongst other interested parties. Just looking at the news recently, we can identify a handful of reported events and moments which might have contributed, coincided with or preceded this rapid deppreciation in value. They include:
Goldman Sachs’ decision to shelf previously announced plans for opening a Bitcoin trading desk.
Speculative doubt stemming from recent pump-and-dumps which utilize the ‘Bitcoin’ moniker.
Prophetic warnings from pundits and other luminaries.
Looking at the Market
The large fall in value could be considered either a correction or a short relief. Either way, it is fair to say that if the market were to return to a more positive trajectory: we could expect the collective growth to be reflective year-over-year, exponentially. Coinschedule (an “ICO listing and cryptocurrency portal”) recorded $3.695 billion total funds raised in 217 from 209 ICOs. By compairson, the same site records 500% times more investment this year (up until August 2nd, 2018) – with $17.489 billion gathered from 686 ICOs so far. It is still important to bear in mind the sobering fact that a great number of ICOs and cryptocurrencies fail.
Additional Studies and Observations
Cezary Graf (AKA Crypto Poland) is a Polish blockchain enthusiast who recently shared a tweet which featured an image which depicted where ‘Bitcoin & The Crypto’ as a collective industry would place in Statista’s list of ‘The 100 largest companies in the world by market value in 2018 (in billions of U.S. dollars)‘. Graf’s post only provided information from the first page and 10 entries of Statista’s list. This suggests that the total industry value is comparable with the likes of Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon (The Big A’s) – whose combined value is over $2471.1 billion. Veering beyond these pages however and considering cryptocurrency’s overall market value has surpassed $262,5 billion. Comparatively it would fit it closer to 17th place – best resembling the following trio of financial industry giants.
Some of the great issues, conversely, plaguing the crypto market include fraudulent and scam ICOs: as well as honest projects which simply offer little to no value to justify their price or existence. This is in addition to (and arguably supported by) an almost universal lack of effective regulations or standards to prevent such tokens, and has led to some going as far as to call ICOs an ‘investment bubble’. If true, the space will prove unsustainable if it continues on its current trajectory: a claim which has been thrown around by those in the industry since at least the end of 2017. If, however, things continue as they are right now then we are likely to enjoy a profitable end of 2018.
Court of the Crypto Kings
No matter the market status: the value of many a cryptocurrency lies in their viability and practical effectiveness of their end-goals, and means of achieving them. Bitcoin of course is the original cryptocurrency and has established its value through its integrity (public whitepaper and open-source nature), as well as it’s practical effectiveness and the rate of adoption it has enjoyed upon implementation. Ethereum is arguably one of the most successful challengers to the BTC throne so far. The project helped to instigate the now-prevalent ‘Blockchain As A Service’ (BaaS) sector, and offers a platform upon which new utility tokens can be constructed – powered by ‘Ether’. Lightning Bitcoin is an example of the new market contenders. One of many which offer a direct and highly competitive alternative to many of the key features associated with Bitcoin. According to their website: ‘LBTC’s utilitarian value as a tradeable currency is boosted by its speed and low-cost transaction fees.
Looking at New Securities
Security Tokens’ comprise a much newer field, which has been quoted to have contributed to the major crypto-crash back in January 2018. The first of these digital securities contracts were sold in December of the previous year and expired the following month – and thus, correlated with the market drop. There has been a lot of news regarding security tokens over the past year, including attempts to either regulate or otherwise ensure a level of safety with regards to risk and fraud prevention, as well as protection of funds. These efforts come from a combination of governments and independent projects and organizations. MOBU is one of these projects and seeks to utilize a proprietary utility token (the eponymous ERC20 ‘MOBU’) to power its “end-to-end solution for ICOs to launch compliant security tokens on the blockchain.”. Features of MOBU cited include KYC / AML compliance integration, enforced and maintained through Ethereum based smart-contracts. This is in addition to what they call the “MOB20 protocol will define a set of commands that a compliant security token should implement.”
https://reddit.com/link/9c398a/video/49awx6qrwmj11/player Crypto attorney Adam S. Tracy discusses the rise of the security token and options for trading markets, including Alternative Trading Systems and securities exchanges. TRANSCRIPTION: So now everybody is wondering or wanting to go the direction of the security token, which makes a lot of sense, if only because in the United States you’re in a bit of a gray area. You know? Are there such things as utility tokens? And a lot of ICO issuers are taking what you consider to be the safe route and saying well, okay, we’re just going to call it a security. And I’ve talked about reggae and ICOs and security token offerings in the past, and why those do and don’t make sense, but the biggest issue is the secondary market, right? Any of the prevailing crypto exchanges, especially the ones the United States — Binance, Bittrex, Coinbase, etc. — aren’t going to list for trading a security token. And the reason why they’re not going to is that they’re not licensed National Securities Exchanges. So to the extent that any of them did list a security token for trading, they could conceivably run afoul of the exchange act because they would be facilitating the exchange of Securities without the proper licensure. So the question becomes can one become a licensed National Securities Exchange? And that’s difficult, right? That’s difficult. There’s only a few of them in the United States, and you’ve heard of them — Nasdaq, New York Stock Exchange, and so forth. So the question becomes are there alternatives, and the primary, if not only alternative, is what’s called an alternative trading system. Or, you know, what’s called a multilateral trading facility in Europe or a call network or a electronic communication network in different places. But the requirements to become an alternative trading system, which is exempt from the requirement that you become a license National Securities Exchange, is that you become a broker-dealer first, right? So typically in the traditional securities world, ATS’s operate sort of in the dark pool type market, where you have large institutional investors trading large blocks between other institutional investors. But that requires you to become a broker-dealer and to become a licensed broker dealer, you have to go through Finrun — you can buy broker-dealers, and obtain the licensure, and operate and so on and so forth, but it’s not an easy road to hoe, right? It’s much more likely that you would be able to become an alternative trading system for crypto than you would a licensed National Securities Exchange, but it’s still fraught with risk, expense, and obviously time to do these sort of things. And, the other thing to think about is, you know, I’ve seen and you’ve coinbased it, and you’ll see others that are trying to become these alternative trading systems. Those aren’t retail platforms, right? Those are institutional platforms. Those are platforms for large block trades to effectively clear. And the reason that a lot of them exist is because they want to clear large trades without the general market knowing because those show off market. So in the traditional securities world, Apple computer can be trading back and forth, but on an ATS, I could go sell, you know, 25 million worth of Apple stock and it won’t necessarily affect the price as its quoted on Nasdaq, right? That’s because it’s off the books. So, you know, the solution for a security token for liquidity is that it has to be either a licensed National Securities Exchange or an ATS, but the reality is that ATS may not provide access for retail investors. So, if you’re going to be an ICO issuer, and you’re issuing a security token, you can’t necessarily make the promise that any of these ATS’s that are coming on board will — one, ever come on board because they have to go through the process of becoming a broker-dealer, and then file a form ATS with the SEC, but you can never guarantee that a retail investor would gain access to it. So, you kind of go back to what I’ve, you know, opined here before is that reality is with the security token, you’re really kind of limited to certain like offshore exchanges because, you know, then the SEC sort of opined on that in the in the Dow Token decision. But these offshore exchanges are probably the only venue that you may have for liquidity, right? And so, I go back to my point like with filing a reggae or an S1 with a security token, yeah you have, you know, the legal ability for resale — meaning the token can be legally resold as opposed to being a restricted security, but you have no market. You actually have less market than you would for one, a share of common stock and two, certainly for utility token. So, you know, an ATS is a great concept, and I think there should be more, but the reality is it doesn’t necessarily guarantee access to retail investors. And it’s definitely plausible that you could start one, and there’s procedures for that. And I’m happy to discuss that with anybody who’s interested, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that your security token is going to have liquidity when these start coming on board which again, I think, you know, with most ICOs the real the value of anything was the liquidity. Right? And if you took an STO, security token offering, and you took a share of stock, a stock offering, and they were the exact same deal, right, and this is just today, if they were the exact same deal promising the exact same returns — one was selling a restricted share of stock, one was selling a restricted security token — in almost every instance, I would advise my clients at least to purchase the shares of stock. Because at least the share of stock has some exit mechanism, right? You can do an IPO, you could list on one of multiple securities exchanges. Whereas, the security token right now doesn’t have that exit. So, it’s actually more liquid than the share of stock, and that sort of goes against what I think has been driving, to a large degree, these ICOs for, you know, now about two years. So it’s an interesting thing to consider if you’re going down the security token road. Not to say that one, you shouldn’t necessarily go down that road or do it the United States could always do it off shore, and two or three rather, you know, you have to consider what the implications of selling what’s an illiquid security really is and how that affects valuation, how that affects your ability to, you know, sort of sell your offering out, right? So if you have any questions, you know informing ATS’s, broker-dealer formation, or security token offerings, hit me up — Adam Tracy at Bitcoin-lawyer.org. Email is at the bottom of this video. Great talking to you, and I will see you soon. — - A former competitive rugby player, serial entrepreneur and, trader attorney, Adam S. Tracy offers over 17 years of progressive legal and compliance experience in the areas of corporate, commodities, cryptocurrency, litigation, payments and securities law. Adam’s experience ranges from commodities trader for oil giant BP, initial public offerings, M&A, to initial coin offerings, having represented both startups to NASDAQ-listed entities. As an early Bitcoin adapter, Adam has promoted growth of cryptocurrency and offers a unique approach to representing crypto-clients. Based in Chicago, IL, Adam graduated from the University of Notre Dame with dual degrees in Finance and Computer Applications and would later obtain his J.D. and M.B.A. from DePaul University. Adam lives outside Chicago with his six animals, which is illegal where he lives. Bitcoin website: http://www.bitcoin-lawyer.org Primary website: http://www.tracyfirm.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/TracyFirm Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVOa8Iy_RIkmRPwuQliPKfw Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamtracy/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thetracyfirm/ Instagram: @adamtracyattorney Telegram: @adam_tracy Skype: @adamtracyesq Email me: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
Cryptocurrencies on pace to close volatile trading week positive following Ethereum Classic addition to Coinbase Index Fund and the launch of the BOLT privacy overlay for Zcash on the lightning network
Developments in Financial Services
Binance is launching a JV with Liechtenstein Cryptoassets Exchange (LCX) to launch a fiat to cryptocurrency exchange, Binnace LCX. The exchange/platforming will be based in Liechtenstein and offer trading between Swiss Francs (CHF) and euros (EUR) against major digital currencies pairs with the potential for new trading pairs in the future.
bloXroute Labs, along with a partnership with a team of student at Northwestern University, are experimenting with a trustless scheme to address the scalability limitations of Bitcoin’s P2P platform. At the moment, with the Lightning Network, Bitcoin transactions capacity is capped at 82 BTC. According to Sarit Markovich, professor of strategy at Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, the bloXroute solution is scaling at 100x better and are targeting 1,000x.
BOLT, a privacy overlay for the lighting network that will be applied to zcash, was formally launched on Github today. BOLT will obscure transaction, balances and sendereceiver identities. The BOLT upgrade to the zcash protocol is considered a soft fork.
Coinbase, according to CEO and co-Founder Brian Armstrong in an interview with Bloomberg, is adding 50k new users a day. Assuming this run-rate, it implies Coinbase will add 350k new users a year.
DGE, a South Korean blockchain developer, who launched its native cryptocurrency TMTG a few weeks ago that is linked to value of gold is attempting to partner with global gold exchanges (after agreements with the Korea Gold Exchange and Vau Diamond Exchange) to create a stable ecosystem for TMTG. In the opinion of DGE, many cryptocurrency developers do not consider the stability of their coins and its impact to the ecosystem these cryptocurrencies support.
Ethereum Classic is +18% this morning after crypto’s inclusion into the Coinbase index fund after being added to the Coinbase Pro trading platform. At the moment, Ethereum Classic has a 0.91% allocation in the fund.
Huobi, the Singapore-based cryptocurrency exchange (and third largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world), has announced partnerships with Yatai International Holding Group, Vnesheconombank, Chi Fu Group, Asia International Finance Holdings, and Dbank Group to create cryptocurrency trading exchanges/platforms in the Philippines, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Canada. The five companies will use Huobi’s Cloud service which will provide the different platforms with the tools they need to open their exchanges on a proven framework.
LINE, a Japanese social messaging app, announced that is forming a USD$10mm blockchain venture capital fund. The company believes the decision to create a blockchain venture fund will make LINE one of the first publicly traded companies to formalize token investments through a corporate fund structure.
Pantera Capital announces it has raised USD$71mm for a third cryptocurrency fund. Calling it Venture Fund III, Pantera has already begun to make investments following an allocation to cryptocurrency trading platform Bakkt (that has a JV with ICE).
Ripple Labs continues to focus on expansion plans, even in the face of recent lawsuits from the District Court of California. The lawsuits content that Ripple’s native cryptocurrency, XRP, should be considered a security which the company flatly rejects. In spite of these issues, Ripple Labs remains focused on its overseas expansions plans in Asia and the Middle East.
Ripple Labs has endorsed three cryptocurrency exchanges, Bittrex, Bitso, and Coins.ph as its preferred partners for transactions with Ripple’s xRapid payments system. Management at Ripple Labs is encouraging users in the US, Mexico and the Philippines to use these exchanges while transacting with xRapid. XRapid is a solution for Ripple’s blockchain-based real-time gross settlement system and is meant to facilitate international fiat transfers between financial institutions.
Square announces that customers will be able to buy/sell Bitcoin via its Cash App across all 50 states in the United States.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) is publicly expressing concerns about the acquisition of Beat Holdings, listed on the TSE, by Noah Ark Technologies, a Hong Kong-based cryptocurrency frim. The TSE concerns are related to management’s bias to stay away from the cryptocurrency sector.
The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is exploring using a distributed ledger technology (DLT) in place of its current clearing house electronic sub-register system. According to Dominic Steves, Managing Director and CEO of the ASX, shifting to a DLT system would save the exchange as much as USD$23bn. A DLT would permit customers to use nodes instead of sending messages and connect to the whole database instead of having to communicate with several different databases and should help eliminate errors.
Bitmain’s upcoming IPO is coming under scrutiny as investors continue to worry about its long-term viability. Specifically, there seem to be concerns about Bitmain’s reserve of Bitcoin Cash which is considered an illiquid position given the daily turnover in current Bitcoin Cash markets. Bitmain’s IPO is currently being valued at USD$18bn.
Bloomberg is reporting that a Bitcoin-based ETN that is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm will begin targeting US investors. The ETN, Bitcoin Tracker One, is listed and traded in Sweden but is now being quoted in USD$. Traders will buy the ETN in a similar way that they buy ADRs where transactions are in USD$ but settlement, clearing and custody will be done in SEK.
Alexander Petersons, product director of cloud mining service Hashtoro.com and self-proclaimed crypto-enthusiast, believes the cryptocoin industry will begin shifting to cleaner and smart mining by taking advantage of local climates to help reduce electricity consumption. While cryptocurrency critics cite costs of crypto mining as an impediment that will limit widescale adoption of digital currencies, Petersons and the team at Hashtoro.com believe the use of clean energy will help address the challenges of scalability.
Bitcoin.com CEO Roger Ver has hinted the online cryptocurrency news publisher may consider an ICO in the future. The topic was brought up during a conversation with one of Bitcoin.com’s lead developers about developing tokens on the Bitcoin Cash blockchain - - Bitcoin.com published a new tool helping aspiring developers to build tokens on the Bitcoin Cash protocol.
A group of researchers/hackers have claimed to have hacked John Mcafee-backed hardware wallet Bitfi. According to its advertising, Bitfi claims to be unhackable. The researchers/hackers claim to have had complete access to a Bitfi wallet for the past two weeks, tracking data being sent out of the wallet while still being connected to the Bitfi servers.
According to a research report by Citrix, 59% of UK companies have been affected by cryptojacking malware. Cryptojacking malware employs its victim’s computational resources without their permission in order to mine cryptocurrencies for the attacker and leads to a wasteful increase in electric power consumption and the slowing down of affected devices. According to Citrix’s research, 80% of the cryptojacking cases took place in the last six months.
Deviant coin releases its whitepaper ahead of the launch of its hybrid decentralized exchange and its open-source hardware wallet. The novelty of Deviant is that it proposed to create rewards within its ecosystems without the typical centralized control of node operators. The Deviant network offers improved speed with stealth addresses for complete anonymity, encrypted messaging for secure communication, low transaction fees, lower confirmation time, and a limited total supply.
The Ethereum community continues to struggle with DApps topping the number of downloads on the blockchain network that are promising investments with high returns that turn out to be fraudulent. As an example, Team JUST, the anonymous development team behind the gambling DApp FOMO 3D is warning that an indentical version of its game is eating up 1/3 of the Ethereum network’s total computational power and raising USD$7mm over the past week.
Genesis Mining, an Iceland-basd hashpower hosting service, is forcing customers to upgrade their Bitcoin mining contracts following this year’s drop in cryptocurrency valuations. The company is discounting the upgrade price of its Radiant service per 1 TH/s to USD$180 from USD$285. In 60 days, Genesis announced it will terminate open-ended contracts that mine less than the daily maintenance fee.
Hash House, a crypto-themed café and workshare space in the city of Xi’an, the capital of Shaanxi Province in China, has recently launched. Among its many features, Hash House will provide visitors with learnings materials on cryptocurrencies and will hose seminars and meetups on different crypto topics.
China News reports that the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) Business School has received a USD$20mm research grant to investigate the security capabilities of electronic payment systems. Partnering with University of Hong Kong (HKU), the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), and the City University of Hong Kong (CityU), the HKUST-led research initiative will focus on artificial intelligence, network security and blockchain technologies.
During an unofficial discussion with Quartz India, unnamed state official in the Indian government, which is examining the impact of the virtual currency ecosystem.
IBM files updates to a pending patent for managing a databases management system (DBMS) using a blockchain database. The patent was initially filed in December 2017 and covers the idea of connecting a blockchain databases with a traditional central database.
Joe Lubin, the co-founder of Ethereum and ConsenSys, does not see the recent sell-off in cryptocurrencies constraining growth of the crypto ecosystem. In an interview with Bloomberg, Lubin suggested the recent run-up in cryptocurrency valuations is similar the previous six bubbles with each bubble more pronounced than the previous.
Joe Lubin, the co-founder of the Ethereum Foundation, during an interview with Bloomberg, claims Ripple is not a blockchain technology and is not a competitor for Ethereum. In Lubin’s mind, Ripple is a payment system, not a blockchain technology. In the case of EOS, Lubin cautions against its decision-making framework and doesn’t believe it is should be treated as layer-one technology yet.
Users can now be paid to participate on the lightning network nodes. The average fee on the lightning network currently is about 1 satoshi. In comparison, the montly income of using the lightning network has been estimated to be closer to USD$2 for a prominent application developer.
Microsoft recent patent applications suggests the company is looking to use trusted execution environments (TEEs) within its blockchain technology. TEEs are pre-determined types of blockchain or other security protocols in validation nodes. TEEs will help assist in the implementation of consortium blockchain networks and will also assist in verifying blockchain transactions on networks where multiple pre-authorized entities must interact.
Saudi Arabia officials warn citizens in a formal joint statement from the Ministry of Trade & Investment, Ministry of Information and Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency that trading Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are illegal in The Kingdom. This press release is in contrast to The Kingdom’s positive disposition to blockchain technology.
Taproot, a protocol overlay for Bitcoin pushed by one of Bitcoin’s most well-known developers Greg Maxwell, will offer a privacy layer which will address Bitcoin critics who believe the benchmark cryptocurrency’s privacy is awful. Taproot, supported by other popular Bitcoin developers, will require the Schnorr upgrade which is still not ready to be implemented. The power of Taproot will be the ability to make smart contract transactions look like any regular Bitcoin transaction, offering anonymity for senders and receivers.
The national government of Vietnam has decided to ban imports of cryptocurrency mining equipment. According to the Ho Chi Minh City Customs Department, 3,664 ASIC devices were imported into the city in C1H2018. The ban of cryptocurrency mining equipment is related to a government investigation into a ICO-fraud that scammed USD$660mm from 32,000 domestic investors. At the moment, cryptocurrencies are outlawed as payments in Vietnam after the Vietnamese Central Bank refused to accept cryptocurrencies as a recognizable form of non-cash payments.
During an interview with Crypto Congressman Jason Hsu, Vitalik Buterin, the co-Founder of the Ethereum Foundation, highlighted his worries about the lack of sustainable applications on the Ethereum blockchain. Buterin is working on a proof-of-stake and charting protocols to help address the current bottlenecks that are preventing widescale adoption of Ethereum. In his opion, privacy concerns remain the biggest hurdle for widespread adoption of Ethereum in the financial sector.
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